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Pre-election Pendulum for the Australian Federal Election, 2013

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 72 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Nationals WA, 1 Green and 4 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis.[1] 

The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform.

Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission‘s classification of safeness. “Safe” seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, “fairly safe” seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while “marginal” seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[2]

See also: Australian federal election, 2010

See also: Full national and state-by-state lower house results and maps for the 2010 Australian federal election

See also: Full national and state-by-state upper house results for the 2010 Australian federal election

See also: Members of the Australian House of Representatives, 2010–2013

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Corangamite (Vic) Darren Cheeseman ALP 50.41
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 50.88
La Trobe (Vic) Laura Smyth ALP 50.91
Robertson (NSW) Deborah O’Neill ALP 51.00
Lindsay (NSW) David Bradbury ALP 51.12
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 51.13
Banks (NSW) Daryl Melham ALP 51.45
Deakin (Vic) Mike Symon ALP 52.41
Petrie (Qld) Yvette D’Ath ALP 52.51
Reid (NSW) John Murphy ALP 52.68
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 53.18
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP 53.33
Capricornia (Qld) Kirsten Livermore ALP 53.68
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 53.70
Page (NSW) Janelle Saffin ALP 54.19
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP 54.23 v GRN
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 54.24
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 54.24
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 54.37
Dobell (NSW) Craig Thomson ALP 55.07
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Peter Garrett ALP 55.16
McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP 55.32
Rankin (Qld) Craig Emerson ALP 55.41
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 55.70
Fremantle (WA) Melissa Parke ALP 55.70
Oxley (Qld) Bernie Ripoll ALP 55.77
Perth (WA) Stephen Smith ALP 55.88
Fairly safe
Chisholm (Vic) Anna Burke ALP 56.11
Bass (Tas) Geoff Lyons ALP 56.74
Werriwa (NSW) Laurie Ferguson ALP 56.75
Barton (NSW) Robert McClelland ALP 56.86
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 56.99
Braddon (Tas) Sid Sidebottom ALP 57.48
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 57.56
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 57.69
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 57.81
Batman (Vic) Martin Ferguson ALP 57.86 v GRN
Bruce (Vic) Alan Griffin ALP 58.12
Griffith (Qld) Kevin Rudd ALP 58.46
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 58.76
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 59.14
Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP 59.15
Bendigo (Vic) Steve Gibbons ALP 59.53
Safe
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 60.82
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 61.02
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 61.52
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 61.70
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP 61.95
Throsby (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP 62.11
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 62.20
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 62.23
Lyons (Tas) Dick Adams ALP 62.29
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP 62.34
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 62.48
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Grierson ALP 62.49
Charlton (NSW) Greg Combet ALP 62.67
Shortland (NSW) Jill Hall ALP 62.85
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 63.17
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 63.23
Hotham (Vic) Simon Crean ALP 63.50
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 63.91
Fraser (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP 64.20
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 64.22
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 66.86
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 67.07
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 69.72
Very safe
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP 70.03
Lalor (Vic) Julia Gillard ALP 72.15
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O’Connor ALP 72.16
Scullin (Vic) Harry Jenkins ALP 72.25
Wills (Vic) Kelvin Thomson ALP 72.64
Gellibrand (Vic) Nicola Roxon ALP 73.90

INDEPENDENT SEATS − Labor confidence and supply

Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN 56.04 v ALP
Denison (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND 51.21 v ALP
Lyne (NSW) Rob Oakeshott IND 62.73 v NAT
New England (NSW) Tony Windsor IND 71.52 v NAT
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 50.57
Boothby (SA) Andrew Southcott LIB 50.75
Dunkley (Vic) Bruce Billson LIB 51.02
Brisbane (Qld) Teresa Gambaro LNP 51.13
Macquarie (NSW) Louise Markus LIB 51.26
Forde (Qld) Bert Van Manen LNP 51.63
Solomon (NT) Natasha Griggs CLP 51.75
Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB 51.76
Longman (Qld) Wyatt Roy LNP 51.92
Herbert (Qld) Ewen Jones LNP 52.17
Canning (WA) Don Randall LIB 52.19
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 52.43
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 52.53
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 52.82
Macarthur (NSW) Russell Matheson LIB 53.02
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB 53.12
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 53.43
Flynn (Qld) Ken O’Dowd LNP 53.58
Fisher (Qld) Peter Slipper LNP 54.13
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB 54.18
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB 54.41
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 54.55
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 55.13
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB 55.17
Gilmore (NSW) Joanna Gash LIB 55.32
Paterson (NSW) Bob Baldwin LIB 55.33
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB 55.55
Fairly safe
Cowan (WA) Luke Simpkins LIB 56.29
Goldstein (Vic) Andrew Robb LIB 56.47
Higgins (Vic) Kelly O’Dwyer LIB 56.75
Fairfax (Qld) Alex Somlyay LNP 56.95
Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP 57.16
Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB 57.29
Mayo (SA) Jamie Briggs LIB 57.35
Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB 57.55
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB 58.72
Hume (NSW) Alby Schultz LIB 58.72
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB 58.74
Pearce (WA) Judi Moylan LIB 58.86
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB 59.11
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 59.27
Indi (Vic) Sophie Mirabella LIB 59.94
Safe
Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP 60.15
McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP 60.28
Hinkler (Qld) Paul Neville LNP 60.39
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP 60.39
Calare (NSW) John Cobb NAT 60.74
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 61.16
Moore (WA) Mal Washer LIB 61.19
Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT 61.45
Tangney (WA) Dennis Jensen LIB 62.32
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB 62.66
Barker (SA) Patrick Secker LIB 62.88
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB 63.09
Durack (WA) Barry Haase LIB 63.67
North Sydney (NSW) Joe Hockey LIB 64.06
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP 64.19
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB 64.51
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LIB 64.86
Wide Bay (Qld) Warren Truss LNP 65.61
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop LIB 65.72
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB 66.19
Berowra (NSW) Philip Ruddock LIB 66.20
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB 67.16
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP 67.49
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT 68.17
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB 68.18
Groom (Qld) Ian Macfarlane LNP 68.53
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT 68.86
Very safe
Murray (Vic) Sharman Stone LIB 70.35
Maranoa (Qld) Bruce Scott LNP 72.89
Mallee (Vic) John Forrest NAT 74.41
INDEPENDENT SEATS
O’Connor (WA) Tony Crook NWA 53.56 v LIB
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter IND 68.34 v LNP

SOURCED entirely from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2010 

SUGGESTED READING:

http://jamesjohnsonchr.wordpress.com/political-history-of-australia/ 

http://jamesjohnsonchr.wordpress.com/2012/06/20/sack-your-sitting-mp-look-how-easily-smarter-donkey-votes-can-restore-democracy/

About JamesJohnsonCHR

Constitutional Human Rights Lawyer & Independent Federal Candidate for Lalor (Commonwealth of Australia). Advocating Smaller, Open Governments with Lower Taxes and Smaller, Faster, Better Bureaucracy. Also Advocating Justice & Politics Reforms. Defending Families & Civil Rights and Freedoms. http://www.jamesjohnson2020.com http://www.jamesjohnsonohr.weebly.com http://www.twitter.com/JamesJohnsonCHR I also blog at http://www.JamesJohnsonCHR.blogspot.com

Discussion

2 thoughts on “Pre-election Pendulum for the Australian Federal Election, 2013

  1. are you still able to practice as a human rights lawyer

    Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2012 23:42:52 +0000 To: ushadams@hotmail.com

    Posted by Usha Adams | October 23, 2012, 9:48 am

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